Christmas in Singapore?

Three hours into leg three.

The entire fleet is sailing due south along the west coast of India in a nice westerly seabreeze. We are flying our A4, a big downwind sail, and cruising along at 10 knots of boatspeed in 9-11 knots of wind. This won't last forever.

I expect the wind to die in about two hours. We most likely will come to a complete stop. A new wind is coming, however. The winter monsoon, a northeast gradient, should set the tone of things and get us moving south once again. As we leave India behind and turn the corner, we'll add extra distance to skirt an exclusion zone that Volvo has set around the southern coast of the island of Sri Lanka; the zone is intended to keep us clear of a gang of pirates that apparently even have their own 'air force'.

Once we clear the land masses of India and Sri Lanka we will be able to head east across the Bay of Bengal. The northeast monsoon will still be our driving weather pattern through this 1,000 mile stretch of open ocean.

Sailing mostly on port tack, at maximum upwind angles we will have a couple of strategic decisions to make.

To the north of our expected track there should be more wind; to the south, a light and shifty convergence zone that is full of clouds, rain and not much wind. However because of the mechanical forces that propel the boat through the water, going south is easy, going north is difficult. We can reach a bit, to sail faster, but then we will be flirting with the convergence zone and the risk of being swallowed up by calms. Going north then seems like the obvious choice, but we can sail only so close to the wind. Climbing up to the windier areas might be costly if we have to sail in full upwind mode or very costly if we actually have to tack. We'll just have to wait and see what micro weather systems exist when we turn east.The last 600 miles of the race will be incredibly tricky as we sail down the Strait of Malacca, with Sumatra to the west and Malaysia to the east. This is a narrow strip of water that is full of fishing boats, fishing nets, commercial shipping, more fishing nets, and, yes, more pirates. But this is also an area of very little wind and an opposing current. No reason to expect it to be easy.

For the last couple of days before we started this leg, the wives and girlfriends of my team mates were asking if my forecasting models show us getting to Singapore in time for Christmas. I didn't have the heart to tell them directly what I was thinking. The truth is, I don't care when we get to Singapore, except in relation to the fleet. All I want for Christmas is a podium finish.